FACTS ABOUT JEHOVAH'S WITNESSES
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Jehovah's Witness Statistics
Since 1995 statistics for the Watchtower Society have rapidly become less encouraging in almost every indicator. Most dramatic have been the increase in people leaving and the number of hours required to convert an extra publisher. It would appear a dramatic change in growth of Jehovah's Witnesses relates to the change of the generation teaching, and access to information via the Internet.
American studies show that Jehovah's Witnesses now have the highest turnover of any religion,1 as supported by Watchtower figures presented in this section.
In the 10 years from 1996 to 2005 there were 2,968,732 baptisms, yet the increase in average publishers was only 1,439,672. This shows 1,529,060 stopped publishing. Even accounting for the average death rate, over 1 million Witnesses left in a 10 year period.
There are limitations to how much can be read into each individual statistic. For instance “Hours preaching per baptism” is limited in that it can not be determined how many baptisms were newly interested people from the territory, and how many were children raised as Jehovah’s Witnesses. Furthermore, a person that becomes a publisher does not necessarily go on to be baptised. What is readily apparent is that the trends show a significant drop in growth, and an even more significant increase in the percentages leaving. Many of the indicators show a favorable swing in the years 2002 and 2007. 2002 was likely a result of heightened fear of Armageddon in response to the events of September 11 2001. It is uncertain what led to the increase in 2007. (To see all figures used in these graphs click here.)
In the 5 years prior to 1975 the number of publishers was increasing at an average of 15% per year. During the 1980’s and early 1990’s growth continued at over 5% per year. This has fallen to between 1 - 2%, hardly more than the world’s population growth of 1.2%. A large number of new publishers are teenagers that were raised as Jehovah’s Witnesses. This indicates that over 1 billion hours of preaching a year only brings enough new people to the Watchtower Society to replace the children that leave.
More significant is the number of hours required for an additional publisher. Due to the high rise in people leaving, the number of hours preaching required per additional publisher increased between 1991 and 2005 from 4,000 to 16,000, an increase of 400%!
This is one of the most telling graphs, showing that the number of people leaving has tripled from the rate 15 years ago. It is not shown in the graph, but for the 10 years from 1986 to 1995 the rate was an average of 12%; for the 10 years from 1996 to 2005 it had risen to 41%.
Click here for a table with figures used for these graphs.
In the 10 years from 1996 to 2005 there were 2,968,732 baptisms, yet the increase in average publishers was only 1,439,672. This shows 1,529,060 stopped publishing. Even accounting for the average death rate, over 1 million Witnesses left in a 10 year period.
There are limitations to how much can be read into each individual statistic. For instance “Hours preaching per baptism” is limited in that it can not be determined how many baptisms were newly interested people from the territory, and how many were children raised as Jehovah’s Witnesses. Furthermore, a person that becomes a publisher does not necessarily go on to be baptised. What is readily apparent is that the trends show a significant drop in growth, and an even more significant increase in the percentages leaving. Many of the indicators show a favorable swing in the years 2002 and 2007. 2002 was likely a result of heightened fear of Armageddon in response to the events of September 11 2001. It is uncertain what led to the increase in 2007. (To see all figures used in these graphs click here.)
Percentage increase of average publishers
The most important statistics are percentage growth rates; these show a significant drop over the last ten years.In the 5 years prior to 1975 the number of publishers was increasing at an average of 15% per year. During the 1980’s and early 1990’s growth continued at over 5% per year. This has fallen to between 1 - 2%, hardly more than the world’s population growth of 1.2%. A large number of new publishers are teenagers that were raised as Jehovah’s Witnesses. This indicates that over 1 billion hours of preaching a year only brings enough new people to the Watchtower Society to replace the children that leave.
Number Leaving
Subtracting the increase in average publishers from the number baptised each year can be used to determine the number of Jehovah's Witnesses that leave each year. This is over 100,000 per year. A more detailed analysis appears later to identify factors such as death rate and number difellowshipped.
Baptisms
The number of baptisms reached a high of over 375,000 in 1997. Since then there has been a rapid fall of 30% to an average of 250,000 per year. When comparing baptisms to the increase in average publishers there is one to two hundred through people unaccounted for each year. This figure is examined in more detail later.
Baptisms as a % of average publishers
Baptisms have halved as a percentage over the last decade. More striking is that since 1997 the rate of baptisms has been double the publisher growth rate, meaning that for every two people baptized almost one is leaving.
Hours preaching per baptism
In 1969 there was one baptism for every 1,983 hours of preaching. During the 1980’s it had risen to 3,000 hours. Over the last 15 years the number of hours preaching required per baptism has increased from 3000 to 5000, an increase of 60%.More significant is the number of hours required for an additional publisher. Due to the high rise in people leaving, the number of hours preaching required per additional publisher increased between 1991 and 2005 from 4,000 to 16,000, an increase of 400%!
Baptisms and Growth compared to total publishers
These graphs highlight the low growth rate proportional to total publishers. Growth is significantly less than the number baptised, particularly since 1999.
Percentage that stopped publishing compared to number baptised
Jehovah's Witnesses have the highest turnover of any mainstream religion.- "Jehovah's Witnesses are most "mobile." Accounting for less than 1 percent of American adults, one-third of their members leave the group, and two-fifths join from another religion.” (Leadership “Currents Shaping Our World: Switched after Birth” July 1, 2003 http://www.ctlibrary.com/le/2003/summer/19.7.html as displayed on 24th January 2007)
- people disfellowshipped/disassociated
- people that have faded from meetings
- people that may attend meetings but have become inactive in reporting
This is one of the most telling graphs, showing that the number of people leaving has tripled from the rate 15 years ago. It is not shown in the graph, but for the 10 years from 1986 to 1995 the rate was an average of 12%; for the 10 years from 1996 to 2005 it had risen to 41%.
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Baptisms
- less Growth in publishers
- less 1.00% disfellowshipped
- add 0.33% reinstated
- less 0.88% death rate = Unaccounted
Number baptised compared to increases in publishers and number that have stopped publishing
1997 was the peak of a long period of year on year growth in baptisms. Up until 1995 the number that stopped publishing was a small fraction in comparison to the increase in publishers. Since then the number of people leaving has grown to the point where it has on occasion exceeded the publisher growth rates. This graph takes into account the death rate as discussed earlier.
5 Year Figures
Comparing the figures over 5 year time-frames evens out some of the spikes. Almost 1 million people are unaccounted for every five years, almost two thirds of the number baptised.
Long Term Figures
Click here for a table with figures used for these graphs.
Memorial partakers
One area that a decrease was hoped for is memorial partakers. Rutherford claimed the 144,000 stop being chosen to coincide with his introduction of the doctrine of the Great Crowd. Well into their 80's, these anointed should be decreasing rapidly each year. The Watchtower 1995 February 15 p.19 "Logically, the calling of the little flock would draw to a close when the number was nearing completion, and the evidence is that the general gathering of these specially blessed ones ended in 1935." Exactly what 'evidence' is that? Apparently none, as admitted in 2007. With the Watchtower 2007 May 1 p.31 finally admitting "Thus it appears that we can not set a specific date for when the calling of Christians to the heavenly hope ends." The following graphs show why this contradiction is called for.
Conclusion
“Jehovah is not slow respecting his promise, as some people consider slowness, but he is patient with YOU because he does not desire any to be destroyed but desires all to attain to repentance.” 2 Peter 3:9
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The Watchtower explains the Last Days have continued so long as Jehovah “desires all to attain to repentance.”
If only active Jehovah’s Witnesses will be saved
then this scripture does not make sense. Everyday on average over 200,000 people are born, but the number of
active Jehovah’s Witnesses increases by only 224 (2005 daily increase in average publishers). Each day
Armageddon delays requires Jehovah to destroy an extra 200,000 people.
It has been stated that Jehovah is speeding up the growth of the Watchtower Society, with predictions that the momentum would continue.
Number disfellowshipped annually - 1.00% This is based on Watchtower 1992 July 1 p.19 "In recent years disfellowshippings worldwide have been approximately 1 percent of publishers." Watchtower 1986 January 1 p.13 stated, “It is to be noted, also, that during the past year, 36,638 individuals had to be disfellowshipped from the Christian congregation” In 1985 average publishers were 2,865,183, so 36,638 represented 1.28%. Watchtower 1987 September 15 p.13 “Unfortunately, during the 1986 service year, 37,426 had to be disfellowshipped from the Christian congregation…” Of the 3,063,289 publishers this represented 1.22% Number reinstated - 0.33% I have used an average figure of 1/3 of the number disfellowshipped subsequently being reinstated. This is based on the following comments. Watchtower 1974 August 1 p. 466 “36,671 persons had to be disfellowshiped for various kinds of serious wrongdoing. Yet, in that same period 14,508 persons were reinstated…” This equates to 39.6% being reinstated. Watchtower 1960 December 1 p.728 “During the service year of 1958-1959 there were 6,552 individuals disfellowshiped by the New World society of Jehovah’s witnesses for various reasons ... and there were 1,597 ... Reinstated…” This equates to only 24%. Number died The CIA World Fact Book July 2005 (www.cia.gov) shows that 0.878% of the global population die each year. The above statistics made allowance for the number of Witnesses that die each year. Average vs Peak Publishers
I have consistently used average publishers rather than peak publishers. This is because peak publishers is an inaccurate figure due to how the Watchtower Society collects this data. For example, if a publisher forgets to report in January and lodges their January and February reports at the end of February, the January report is not adjusted, rather both reports are added to February, creating an artifical spike. Using average publishers helps even out this error.
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“JEHOVAH is now speeding up the ingathering of sheeplike ones. Surely, then, this is no time for his people to slow down in their Kingdom-preaching and disciple-making work. (Isaiah 60:8, 22; Matthew 24:14; 28:19, 20) … Indeed, increased witnessing activity by so many more publishers and pioneers is now stirring up the world field. And the momentum of this joyous ingathering will yet grow.—Isaiah 60:11”
Watchtower 1988 July 15 p.15
Notes on how Statistics derived
The following statistical information has been used in the estimation of some figures above:Number disfellowshipped annually - 1.00% This is based on Watchtower 1992 July 1 p.19 "In recent years disfellowshippings worldwide have been approximately 1 percent of publishers." Watchtower 1986 January 1 p.13 stated, “It is to be noted, also, that during the past year, 36,638 individuals had to be disfellowshipped from the Christian congregation” In 1985 average publishers were 2,865,183, so 36,638 represented 1.28%. Watchtower 1987 September 15 p.13 “Unfortunately, during the 1986 service year, 37,426 had to be disfellowshipped from the Christian congregation…” Of the 3,063,289 publishers this represented 1.22% Number reinstated - 0.33% I have used an average figure of 1/3 of the number disfellowshipped subsequently being reinstated. This is based on the following comments. Watchtower 1974 August 1 p. 466 “36,671 persons had to be disfellowshiped for various kinds of serious wrongdoing. Yet, in that same period 14,508 persons were reinstated…” This equates to 39.6% being reinstated. Watchtower 1960 December 1 p.728 “During the service year of 1958-1959 there were 6,552 individuals disfellowshiped by the New World society of Jehovah’s witnesses for various reasons ... and there were 1,597 ... Reinstated…” This equates to only 24%. Number died The CIA World Fact Book July 2005 (www.cia.gov) shows that 0.878% of the global population die each year. The above statistics made allowance for the number of Witnesses that die each year. Average vs Peak Publishers
I have consistently used average publishers rather than peak publishers. This is because peak publishers is an inaccurate figure due to how the Watchtower Society collects this data. For example, if a publisher forgets to report in January and lodges their January and February reports at the end of February, the January report is not adjusted, rather both reports are added to February, creating an artifical spike. Using average publishers helps even out this error.
Footnotes:
1 "An even more extreme example of what might be called "masked churn" is the relatively tiny Jehovah's Witnesses, with a turnover rate of about two-thirds. That means that two-thirds of the people who told Pew they were raised Jehovah's Witnesses no longer are - yet the group attracts roughly the same number of converts." America's Unfaithful Faithful David Van Biema (http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20080225/us_time/americasunfaithfulfaithful February 25 2008)
"Jehovah's Witnesses have the lowest retention rate of any religious tradition. Only 37% of all those who say they were raised as Jehovah's Witnesses still identify themselves as Jehovah's Witnesses." (http://religions.pewforum.org/reports As at March 8 2008)
"Jehovah's Witnesses are most "mobile." Accounting for less than 1 percent of American adults, one-third of their members leave the group, and two-fifths join from another religion." Currents Shaping Our World: Switched after Birth (http://www.ctlibrary.com/le/2003/summer/19.7.html July 1, 2003)